Michael Stuart: Anders Nilsson Steals a Win

As I said before, Pageau and the new guys are gonna cost us Lafreniere. Dorion needs to start making moves far before the TDL.

Another win for SJ btw ..

Found it interesting how last night's colour commentary by Greg Milne was so highly positive about the positive impact that Zaitsev was having on Ottawa's defensive play in their own end. Ottawa coaching just loves this guy.

So, either the insiders are just plain dumb or the magical numbers are pure Bean Sprouts.

who knows, can't both be right... the magical numbers are correct but don't carry as much weight as the analytical community would have us believe?

Solid goaltending, reasonable depth at forward/defence, better structure and hard work is rewarded. As it stands, the Senators are close to a middle of the pack team that should average a point a game until they unload players at the trade deadline.

Demelo just continues to generate very solid results. We should extend him for 5 more years.

who knows, can't both be right... the magical numbers are correct but don't carry as much weight as the analytical community would have us believe?
- kaptaan

I have always thought that shots on goal was a great indicator of performance. Have yet to see a statistical measure that is better than bare bone essentials such as shots on goal and save percentage.

Short article on Pinto in the Hockey News.

I realize these are often fluff pieces, but still nice to see him mentioned.

I have always thought that shots on goal was a great indicator of performance. Have yet to see a statistical measure that is better than bare bone essentials such as shots on goal and save percentage.
- spatso

Corsi is measuring shots, just including those that happen to miss the net.

Even if you take it back to shots on goal only, Zaitsev is worst on the team's D by a not-insignificant margin.

Corsi is measuring shots, just including those that happen to miss the net.

Even if you take it back to shots on goal only, Zaitsev is worst on the team's D by a not-insignificant margin.
- Michael_Stuart

I understand. So, reason me why? What is it that Smith and the rest of the Sen's coaching staff get so wrong?

I understand. So, reason me why? What is it that Smith and the rest of the Sen's coaching staff get so wrong?
- spatso

It's not like this is the only instance of organizations vastly overvaluing players viewed as "defensive specialists" in today's NHL. It's a systemic thing rather than a fault solely attributable to Smith & Ottawa's staff.

I think that seeing a player in the defensive zone a lot gives the perception that he must be good in that situation, because he's being "trusted" with those important minutes. Reality in most cases is that players who spend a lot of time in the defensive zone are there because they can't get the puck out of the zone and up to their forwards.

That's not to say there aren't really, really good defensive defensemen in the league - Chris Tanev in his prime was unbelievably good. Zaitsev isn't that kind of player.

I have always struggled with allowing fancy stats to overrule a good old fashion eye test. In this case, I don’t really see fancy stats for the Sens current roster doing much of anything to prove who is good and who is bad. They just prove everyone is bad because this roster is bad.

I feel half the discussions about the current team are essentially “I’d rather have fork shoved into my eye instead of my ear”. Zaitsev should not be in the long-term plan for this team. He is close to untradeable and is essentially a place holder during the rebuild years.

I have always struggled with allowing fancy stats to overrule a good old fashion eye test. In this case, I don’t really see fancy stats for the Sens current roster doing much of anything to prove who is good and who is bad. They just prove everyone is bad because this roster is bad.

I feel half the discussions about the current team are essentially “I’d rather have fork shoved into my eye instead of my ear”. Zaitsev should not be in the long-term plan for this team. He is close to untradeable and is essentially a place holder during the rebuild years.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I just don't view him as completely useless/ineffective- I don't think he is a long term option, but I have been pleasantly surprised so far with how steady he's been. Maybe it's just that Ceci was that bad and Zaitsev doesn't have to show much improvement? It's night and day with Cody the trainwreck

I have always struggled with allowing fancy stats to overrule a good old fashion eye test. In this case, I don’t really see fancy stats for the Sens current roster doing much of anything to prove who is good and who is bad. They just prove everyone is bad because this roster is bad.

I feel half the discussions about the current team are essentially “I’d rather have fork shoved into my eye instead of my ear”. Zaitsev should not be in the long-term plan for this team. He is close to untradeable and is essentially a place holder during the rebuild years.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I don't know that it's overruling anything here. I've seen a lot of Zaitsev/Chabot in the defensive end, and that concerns me. I just like to check what I see with my eyes against the numbers, because it doesn't feel like I'd be doing readers a service just to throw out un-researched/unsupported opinions - sometimes you discover things in both directions doing that comparison! Players you thought were bad are doing lots of good things. Players you thought were good are doing a lot of bad things. And then sometimes your eye test assessment lines up with the numbers and you feel proud haha.

I don't know that it's overruling anything here. I've seen a lot of Zaitsev/Chabot in the defensive end, and that concerns me. I just like to check what I see with my eyes against the numbers, because it doesn't feel like I'd be doing readers a service just to throw out un-researched/unsupported opinions - sometimes you discover things in both directions doing that comparison! Players you thought were bad are doing lots of good things. Players you thought were good are doing a lot of bad things. And then sometimes your eye test assessment lines up with the numbers and you feel proud haha.
- Michael_Stuart

Good rebuttal. I don't disagree really.

My bigger issue is that I feel some people take the fancy stats without watching the game. Not saying that's you, just in general.